Forever Young Heavy Favorite as Baeza and Phileas Fogg Chase in Jockey Club Gold Cup

The 2026 running of the Jockey Club Gold Cup shapes up as a showcase for defending Breeders’ Classic champion Forever Young, who enters as the overwhelming 3-5 morning-line favorite. But the New York Racing Association race also offers intrigue among the challengers, most notably Baeza, the Kentucky Derby show horse trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, and the colorful longshot contender Phileas Fogg.

Baeza, listed at 9-2 from the rail with jockey Junior Alvarado, arrives with a strong 2025 resume. He finished just behind Sovereignty and Journalism in a tight Kentucky Derby finish at Churchill Downs, andObservers noted he was closing rapidly through the final strides and passed both horses on the gallop out — a sign of the late-run energy he could bring to Saturday’s field.

Phileas Fogg, at 4-1 from post four under Kendrick Carmouche for trainer Gustavo Rodriguez, is viewed as the other principal threat to the favorite. Forever Young, breaking from post seven with Ryusei Sakai aboard for trainer Yoshito Yahagi, is expected to set the tone early given his commanding odds.

The rest of the seven-horse lineup includes two more Mott trainees — Stars and Stripes at 15-1 with John Velazquez — plus Chunk of Gold (12-1, Jaime Torres, Ethan West), Banishing (12-1, Joel Rosario, David Jacobson) and Render Judgment (20-1, Manny Franco, Kenny McPeek).

The race carries broader resonance for the racing industry, which has had a strong 2025-2026 stretch of marquee matchups. Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN), operator of the Kentucky Derby and a range of wagering and gaming properties, saw its shares slip 1.28% in recent trading to $82.22, below a prior close of $83.29, valuing the company at roughly $6.07 billion. The consumer-cyclical gambling name remains a bellwether for pari-mutuel handle and thoroughbred interest nationwide.

With Sovereignty and Journalism — the stars of the 2025 Triple Crown season — absent from this field, the spotlight falls squarely on whether Forever Young can validate his status or whether Baeza’s late-running style can complicate the expected result.

What to watch

• Whether Forever Young converts 3-5 favoritism into a win, or Baeza at 9-2 delivers an upset from the rail.
• Early pace scenario: Forever Young’s typical front-running style versus Baeza’s demonstrated closing ability.
• Handle figures and wagering volume from NYRA, an industry indicator that often moves alongside names like Churchill Downs.
• Follow-up coverage and official results from NYRA following the race.

Source: original release