UFC Vegas 122 best betting props, parlays and picks | Allen vs. Duncan
UFC Vegas 122 goes down this weekend (Sat., Oct. 17, 2026) inside META APEX in Las Vegas, Nevada. The main event for this one is Brendan Allen vs. Christian Leroy Duncan in the Middleweight division. That’s not a bad fight, but the card — as a whole — might be one of the worst we’ve ever put on.
The co-main event is Matheus Camilo vs. Jai Herbert. Now you can go and Google who those two are. The main card also hosts Lupita Godinez vs. Ketlen Souza, Andre Fili vs. Kai Kamaka III and Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Otari Tanzilovi.
The featured ‘Prelim’ (if that’s still a thing) is Julius Walke vs. Gerald Meerschaert. The undercard also has Niko Price vs. Leon Shahbazyan and RJ Harris vs. Allen Frye Jr.
There may not be quality, but there’s always quantity, so that means there are lots of fights to bet on this Saturday. Check out those odds below:
UFC Vegas 122 Main Card Money Line Odds
Brendan Allen (-142) vs. Christian Leroy Duncan (+120)
Allen’s eight fight winning streak was snapped by Nassourdine Imavov in 2024. He then lost to Anthony Fernandez in the following year. Since then, though, he’s reeled off three wins in a row and looked more aggressive than ever. His last win was over Edmen Shabazyan in June. Before that he beat the snot out of Reinier de Ridder to force a retirement (see that here). And before that he jump-started the downfall of Marvin Vettori.
Duncan lost a decision to Gregory Rodrigues in 2024. He’s won five straight since then, though. The first of that run was a very dull decision over Andrey Pulyaev. But after that he looked very aggressive against Eryk Anders and Marco Tulio, finishing them with spinning attacks. After that he dominated Roman Dolidze and somewhat cruised to a win over Jared Cannonier (where Cannonier finally started to look his age). That Cannonier win, from July, was his most recent fight.
This card is terrible. Maybe one of the worst ever. But I’m not mad at this fight at all. It makes a lot of sense, when you consider the division, and I think these two are pretty evenly matched.
I’m siding with Allen here, though. I think his cardio and experience against top contenders will help him a lot. Duncan has looked good lately, but it’s been against some guys who really faded down the stretch. I have no doubts in Allen’s ability to go five rounds and be fresh at the start of the fifth.
Duncan has never gone five rounds before. And he’s a guy who carries a lot of muscle on his frame and he also puts a lot of energy into his spinning attacks. I think there’s a chance he might fade down the stretch, especially if he’s forced to fight the pace that Allen wants to go at.
I think Allen is going to be trying to stick tight to Duncan and tire him out on the fence or, in a best case scenario for him, on the ground. We saw Pulyaev almost succeed in doing this to Duncan, but Duncan was able to do enough when in space to bank the decision.
Over the long haul, I think Duncan’s explosive attacks will get less and less the longer this goes and Allen’s death by a thousand cuts approach will get him the decision.
Best bet: Brendan Allen moneyline (-142)
Matheus Camilo (-198) vs. Jai Herbert (+164)
Camilo is still mostly known as that guy who beat that guy who begged Dana White for a fight at a press conference. Winning that fight earned Camilo a contract and he’s gone 2-1 since then. In his last fight he silenced the crowd in Baku by finishing Nazim Sadykhov in 91 seconds (see it here).
Herbert got a first round TKO over Mandel Nallo in April, in hostile territory (though I would argue that Canada is probably much more friendly than Azerbaijan). Before that he lost a split decision to Chris Padilla. He’s quietly fought ten times in UFC, but is yet to put together two wins in a row.
Camilo is supposed to be a wrestler, but he stunned Sadykhov with a huge straight right. That was pretty impressive. But this is still a classic wrestler vs. striker match-up for him.
Camilo has been very active with his takedowns thus far. He’s landed five on Viacheslav Borshchev for his first win in the promotion. He’s probably going to go with that kind of gameplan here again, looking to takedown and tire his opponent.
Herbert has good takedown defense on paper, at 66 percent. And the context around that number is pretty good, too. He shutout Padilla on six attempts. Other than when he met Renato Moicano in his second ever UFC fight, he’s never been taken down more than twice in a bout.
So I don’t think Camilo is going to have this fight completely his own way. I’m unsure if Herbert will be able to capitalize on having all that time standing, though. He’s creeping up to 40 and is thirteen years older than Camilo.
Camilo’s youth and athleticism advantage might help him out with those takedowns. And he might be faster and sharper than Herbert on the feet. I don’t think that leads to another surprising finish for Camilo, but it could mean that he gets the better of some exchanges and, at the very least, prevents Herbert from doing any serious damage.
The round total is 1.5 here and that feels very low. I think this probably goes to a decision.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-180)
Lupita Godinez (-225) vs. Ketlen Souza (+185)
Godinez was dominated by Tatiana Suarez in her last fight, losing by second round submission (see it here). That killed the moment she put together through wins over Jessica Andrade and Julia Polastri.
Souza scored a huge head kick KO in June, over Ariane Carnelossi (see it here). Before that she had a decision over Bruna Brasil. She’s 4-3 in UFC and that includes her club-and-sub upset win over Yazmin Jauregui in 2024.
I really enjoy Souza’s fights. She has a bit of Diaz brother in her and she can really crack. I’m not sure how much opportunity she’ll get to do that against Godinez, though. Godinez has rag-dolled anyone who is not a high level wrestler and grappler. Her 2.99 takedowns per 15 minutes is very high and her 42 percent takedown accuracy is pretty good, too. Souza’s 53 percent takedown defense is OK, but if Piera Rodriguez can take her down seven times then I think Godinez (a national level wrestler in Canada) can probably do it ten times.
Souza’s best defense for that will likely be trying to land big shots as Godinez changes levels. It’s high risk and high reward and I think Godinez is smart enough to avoid that en route to getting her takedowns.
Best bet: Lupita Godinez moneyline (-225)
Andre Fili (-155) vs. Kai Kamaka III (+130)
This will be Fili’s 28th bout in UFC. Doesn’t that make you feel
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