College football Week 7 upset watch: Missouri, UMass, Kansas push favorites

October 16, 2026 · by SPW Pipeline

Kansas carries a 17-game losing streak against Kansas State into Manhattan to headline college football’s Week 7 upset watch, one of six games where the underdog has a credible path to an outright win.

The Jayhawks haven’t won the Sunflower Showdown since 2008, but Kansas State has dropped its first two Big 12 games under first-year coach Collin Klein, and the line has fallen from 8.5 points at the open to 4.5.

Each game gets an upset grade from 1 to 10, and a 10 means the underdog has the clearest path to an outright win. Six more games get shorter grades in the final section. Hat tip to Game On Paper and ESPN FPI for many of the advanced stats used in this article.

MORE: College football Week 7 best bets: Northwestern, Missouri, Nebraska spread picks

Kansas (+4.5) at Kansas State: Upset Watch 7.5

Kansas Jayhawks quarterback Isaiah Marshall (8) warm up prior to a game against the Utah Utes | Aaron Baker-Imagn Images

Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 17, noon ET (FS1)

Klein was on the Wildcats’ roster for that 2008 loss and for the 2009 win that started the streak. “The score is 0-0 right now, and we’ve got to earn it every single day this week on the practice field to leave the game Saturday how we want,” Klein said Monday.

Kansas coach Lance Leipold is 0-5 against K-State, and he conceded this week that the Jayhawks still haven’t made it a two-sided rivalry. “For a lot of years, I said, ‘It can’t be much of a rivalry unless we hold our end of the bargain up,’ and we haven’t done that yet,” Leipold said.

Kansas State (3-2) managed 16 points in a home loss to Houston last week, while Kansas (2-3) fell 41-24 at Utah.

Kansas has the better defense, ranking 20th nationally in adjusted EPA per play, compared with K-State’s 73rd, and it has played a tougher schedule. Jayhawks running back Dylan Edwards also faces his former team after transferring from Manhattan. If the Kansas defense holds quarterback Avery Johnson and the Wildcats in the 20s, the Jayhawks have their best chance in years to end the streak.

Picks: Kansas 28-27, Kansas +4.5, Under 55.5

MORE: Week 7 CFB DFS picks: LSU’s Sam Leavitt top value on DraftKings, FanDuel

UMass (+7) at Buffalo: Upset Watch 8

Massachusetts Minutemen quarterback William Watson III (5) makes a pass during the first quarter against the Rutgers Scarlet Knights | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 17, 1 p.m. ET (ESPN+)

UMass opened 4-0, starting with a 37-21 win at Rutgers that snapped a 16-game losing streak. The Minutemen have since dropped two straight home games, and they’ll likely start their third quarterback in three weeks. Pop Watson (ankle) is unlikely to play, and freshman Aedan McCarthy is out after getting hurt in last week’s 20-19 loss to Miami (Ohio).

That leaves Drake transfer Logan Inagawa or Ty McCutcheon. Inagawa completed all six of his passes for 83 yards on UMass’ final drive against Miami. “Logan’s played college football. He’s got games under his belt. To come in and do what he did was great,” UMass coach Joe Harasymiak said.

Defense has carried UMass, which allows 300.7 yards per game to rank first in the MAC. The Minutemen also rate ahead of Buffalo in ESPN’s offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency rankings.

Buffalo (3-3, 1-1 MAC) turned to a backup of its own after Elijah Holmes suffered a season-ending knee injury. Jason Wright has completed 48.8% of his passes in four starts, so the Bulls lean on running back Messiah Burch, who has topped 100 rushing yards in three straight games.

Buffalo won the first Flagship Cup 28-21 last season with a touchdown in the final minute. This time, UMass’ defense keeps Wright from finishing drives, and the Minutemen flip the result with a late score of their own.

Picks: UMass 23-20, UMass +7, Over 42.5

Missouri (+5.5) at Ole Miss: Upset Watch 9.5

Missouri Tigers wide receiver Cayden Lee (19) runs in for a touchdown as Texas A&M Aggies cornerback Jordan Shaw (8) makes the tackle | Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Kickoff: Saturday, Oct. 17, 3:30 p.m. ET (SEC Network)

Three starters from Ole Miss’ 2025 Playoff team now play for Missouri: Simmons, receiver Cayden Lee and cornerback Chris Graves Jr. Ole Miss coach Pete Golding didn’t downplay what the Rebels lost. “We know how good they are. They all started on a playoff team here. They’re really good players,” Golding said.

Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz turned the scouting question back on the Rebels. “Austin’s been going against that defense for three years. Cayden Lee went against that defense for three years,” Drinkwitz said.

Lee leads Missouri with 42 catches for 616 yards and five touchdowns. The Tigers haven’t lost since blowing a fourth-quarter lead at Mississippi State, and their defense ranks fifth nationally in adjusted EPA per play. Ole Miss beat Vanderbilt 52-17 last week and owns wins over LSU and Louisville, but running back Kewan Lacy is still working back from injury.

Drinkwitz knows Missouri can’t play keep-away all afternoon. “The way they score points, I don’t think we can sit in a bunker for three quarters,” he said. Still, a running game averaging 181.7 yards keeps Chambliss on the sideline long enough for the Tigers to win in Oxford.

Picks: Missouri 30-27, Missouri +5.5, Under 58.5

MORE: College football Week 7 prediction market picks: Missouri, UNC upset potential

Penn State (+7) at Michigan: Upset Watch 6

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Rocco Becht (3) throws a pass during the first quarter against the Southern California Trojans | Matthew O’Haren-Imagn Images