Patriots vs. Bears ‘Thursday Night Football’ betting odds, picks and predictions: Best bets, player props
Two of the hottest teams in the NFL square off Thursday when the suddenly resurgent Chicago Bears host the red-hot New England Patriots at Soldier Field.
Chicago (4-2) enters this clash fresh off a 31-23 road victory against the Atlanta Falcons. Quarterback Caleb Williams made a brilliant return from injury, completing 30 passes on 36 attempts for 305 yards and a touchdown.
On the other side, things couldn’t be better for New England (4-2) and head coach Mike Vrabel. The Patriots have won three consecutive games, including last weekend’s 26-19 triumph against the New York Jets.
The Bears opened as 1.5-point favorites and have taken a bunch of money since then, with the line now parked at -3 at most books across the landscape. The total has also jumped, moving from 47.5 to 50.5.
Let’s take a look where we’ve found some betting value — and a live long shot — ahead of this intriguing showdown.
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (-3, 50.5)
If there was a team inundated with injuries in Week 6, it was definitely New England.
The Patriots were beset with numerous injuries, specifically to their starting offensive linemen. Right guard Alijah Vera-Tucker (hamstring) and left guard Ben Brown (knee) have been ruled out. Right tackle Morgan Moses is dealing with a foot issue, but Vrabel said he has a chance of playing.
Obviously, that’s a whole lot of key absences on the line protecting Drake Maye, who has been ridiculously good — and might be playing the best football of his young career — during this winning streak.
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As for the Bears, you have to like their chances with Williams back under center. Chicago is a completely different team when he’s leading the show, which was evident in last weekend’s thrilling road win at Atlanta.
Another element working in the Bears’ favor on the short week will be the emotional edge. This is the first game Chicago will be playing at Soldier Field since the passing of legendary coach/player Mike Ditka. Head coach Ben Johnson’s team will hope to put together its finest performance against this same franchise Ditka and his 15-1 Bears squad defeated 46-10 in Super Bowl XX in New Orleans.
Statistically, these franchises can light it up on any given outing. New England averages just under 23 points per game, while Chicago is slightly better (25 PPG) in the category. The Bears have the edge for total yards per game (388.3 to 374.2), which could mean more fireworks.
Defensively, they’re both solid. The Patriots rank 10th in total yards allowed (1,805), which is nine yards fewer than the 11th-ranked Bears. They’re both in the top 10 in rushing yards conceded, while Chicago is tied for fifth with 17.0 total sacks.
The edge on these short-week games typically lies with the home team, but I think Vrabel will have New England ready to roll. The injuries to multiple offensive linemen are of major concern, but I think the Patriots’ reserves will step up and fill the holes.
I think New England keeps this contest within a field goal — and potentially wins outright – on what is forecasted to be a picturesque night in the "Windy City."
Bet: Patriots +3.5 alternate spread (-140, FanDuel)
Foxborough, MA – October 18: New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye takes the field before the game. The New England Patriots played the New York Jets at Gillette Stadium on October 18, 2026. Boston Globe via Getty Images
Player props
QB Drake Maye over 1.5 TD passes (-122, FanDuel)
Is there any quarterback in the NFL hotter than Maye right now? I think not.
Maye has been sensational of late, throwing for 878 yards and 10 touchdowns versus just one interception during the Patriots’ three-game winning streak. He’s also the first New England QB to have three consecutive games with at least three TD passes since Tom Brady, who achieved the feat in 2017.
Bet on Drake Maye to throw at least two TD passes at sportsbooks now
Maye has cleared this number in three of his last five starts, so I don’t see what’s stopping him here. His numbers (18-of-35, 235 yards, three TDs) against the Jets would have been better had his receivers had made routine catches, including A.J. Brown and the three drops he had the win.
WR DeMario Douglas over 37.5 receiving yards (-114) | 40+ receiving yards (+100) | 50+ receiving yards (+168)
With Romeo Doubs now on the IR with a shoulder injury, Maye is going to have to find a complementary target to Brown in the New England offense.
Enter DeMario Douglas.
We backed the speedy slot receiver to clear his yardage total in the Patriots’ season-opening loss against the Seattle Seahawks. So, we have no problem going to the well with him one more time in a game where he should be featured even more with Doubs and fellow wideout Mack Hollins (calf) parked on the sideline.
Over the last two games, Douglas has been Maye’s go-to guy. Douglas has 11 receptions on 13 targets for 151 yards and three touchdowns combined during that span. Douglas was second in targets to Brown in the victory against the Jets, finishing with a 59% snap share.
Jump on Douglas to clear his receiving yardage, then tack on a mini-ladder play for him to hit the alternate totals to 50 yards.
Anytime TD scorers
RB Roschon Johnson (+210, FanDuel)
It goes without saying D’Andre Swift is the clear RB1 in the Chicago locker room.
He leads the Bears in carries (94), yards (398) and touchdowns (six) this season. However, something has stuck out over the last two Chicago games and that’s his surprising inactivity getting the ball after halftime.
Swift has a grand total of five second-half carries over the last two games. Yes, you read that correctly. With Kyle Monangui out, I think you have to take a good, hard look at Johnson.
He put together his best effort of the season in the win against Atlanta, carrying the ball 13 times for 51 yards and a touchdown. He also had two catches for 34 yards.
With Swift getting shelved in the second half of late, I think this is a prime spot to target Johnson to score in back-to-back games.
RB Corey Kiner (+700, FanDuel)
This might look like a flyer on paper, but I think we’re going to see more of Kiner than we think when New England lines up against the Chicago defense.
Vrabel obviously has confidence in the second-year running back out of Cincinnati. And his trust in Kiner was on full display last Sunday, when he had eight consecutive rushing attempts to close out the road win in New York.
Kiner wound up leading the Patriots’ three-headed rushing attack with 13 carries for 57 yards, which came off the heels of his six-carry, 52-yard effort two weeks ago against Las Vegas.
He has
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