Cowboys at Eagles ‘Monday Night Football’ betting odds, picks and predictions: Best bets, player props
It’s the circle of life in the NFL, I guess.
For the second time this season, what should have been a very compelling Monday Night Football matchup is compromised by quarterback health.
Ironically, the first time, the Eagles were headed out on the road to take on the Bears without Caleb Williams, but just four weeks later, it’s Philadelphia that’s missing its QB1, as Jalen Hurts is out of the season with issues stemming from blood clots.
Like the Eagles in Week 3, the Cowboys are expected to win on the road, but with a line well under a touchdown again, the betting market isn’t so sure. Especially after the home ‘dog scored an upset the first time around.
Dallas Cowboys (-4.5, 44.5) at Philadelphia Eagles
The Cowboys’ offense is overrated.
After a respectable start, when adjusting for garbage time and high-leverage plays like turnovers and fourth downs, the Cowboys have been tumbling down the rankings of advanced metrics like weighted EPA/Play and Success Rate.
It hasn’t helped that they’ve faced top-five units in the Buccaneers and Packers, but their early season numbers were propped up by facing teams outside of the top 10. Plus, if you apply time for teams’ scouting what Dallas wants to do, you can see why the Cowboys can’t just rely on “out-talenting” the opponent.
Few defensive coordinators are more familiar with Dallas than Vic Fangio, and the Eagles have been better at limiting opponents’ EPA/Play (a metric that’s augmented by the explosiveness that the Cowboys live and die by) than they have with raw Success Rate.
It was a one-game sample size, but Tanner McKee’s first start of the season in relief of Hurts went about as you might expect, as the Eagles were 26th (of 28) in the metrics above. On a positive note, McKee didn’t turn the ball over, despite 45 pass attempts against the Panthers.
DeVonta Smith and Dontayvion Wicks have already been ruled out for Monday, which won’t help Philadelphia’s potential for chunk yardage. However, the possible return of Saquon Barkley does alter what might be asked of McKee, and only makes it more likely that the Eagles will be able to sustain long, clock-chewing drives between the 20s, against a Cowboys defense that’s been known to give them up.
With neither team compelled to put the football at risk, and the familiarity with what to expect from the opposing offense, we should expect a similar game to when the Eagles were on the other side of this scenario — a score with a combined total in mid-to-high 30s like that night in Chicago.
Bet: Under 44.5 total points (-118)
Bet the under in Cowboys-Eagles at sportsbooks right now
GREEN BAY, WISCONSIN – OCTOBER 18: Dak Prescott #4 of the Dallas Cowboys throws a pass against the Green Bay Packers during a game at Lambeau Field on October 18, 2026 in Green Bay, Wisconsin. Patrick McDermott via Getty Images
Player props
Dak Prescott under 9.5 rush yards (-106, DraftKings)
Nothing provides the feeling of fresh legs and a new season than September football, so we shouldn’t be surprised that Dak Prescott was a little more spry in the season’s first three games, running 10 times for 59 yards.
Since then, for Prescott, it’s been mostly about “chuck and duck” rather than scramble, with just four rushing attempts for 7, 6, 0, and -1 yards over the last three games.
Against a pass defense with just a 45% pass-rush win rate, Prescott should have enough time to get the ball out — something he’s realized is a better option than taking off on a cold night in Philly.
George Pickens under 4.5 receptions (+116, FanDuel)
Last season, Pickens averaged exactly one more reception and over 20 yards more per game at home, clearly enjoying the friendly confines of “Jerry World.”
This season, it’s even more drastic:
-
Home: 15 receptions in two games
-
Road: 11 receptions in three games
That last number is only that high because the Cowboys found themselves in such an aggressive trailing game-state in Green Bay last Sunday night. As the favorites in this one, there shouldn’t be any need to force-feed Pickens anything like the 11 targets that were sent his way to crawl over this total a week ago.
Saquon Barkley over 13.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
On Sunday, the 49ers — devoid of quality receiving options — plotted all week to put Christian McCaffrey in the slot, and shift far enough outside the backfield to be used as a primary pass-catching option (at least, until he got hurt doing it).
The Eagles aren’t sharp enough to be able to put that kind of plan in place on short notice, but it’s the general idea that throwing to Barkley will be another way to get their best player in space. That will provide an easy outlet for Tanner McKee, while taking heat of their makeshift offensive line — a unit that’s struggled to create holes for any runners.
Anytime TD scorers
Ryan Flournoy (+370, DraftKings)
In a game we anticipate to be low-scoring, playing the Cowboys’ highly-publicized weapons doesn’t present much value.
When it comes to “names,” you could start including Flournoy’s with Pickens and CeeDee Lamb, based on the fact he was just one snap short of those other two last week, and regularly plays over three-quarters of the time.
Against the Eagles, whose secondary drops off in quality the deeper you go, if Prescott looks away from whoever’s being covered by Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean, Flournoy might make it back-to-back games with a touchdown, and six of the last 15 going back to last season (implied odds of +150).
Brevyn Spann-Ford (+700, DraftKings)
Another reason to like Flournoy is because of the drop in opportunity for Jake Ferguson. After a rough Week 5, he went from someone who often plays 70% of snaps to barely half in Green Bay.
Ferguson’s literal tight end replacement for those handful of snaps was Brevyn Spann-Ford, who went from just three catches on six targets in the first five games, to hauling in four of his five looks from Prescott.
In his third year, BSF is a big, sizable, freak of an athlete at 6-foot-6 — the perfect red-zone target against the Eagles, against whom he scored his lone career touchdown last season.
Dallas Goedert (+190, DraftKings)
The young, inexperienced quarterback’s best friend is always the tight end. Sure enough, Dallas Goedert was on the other end of eight Tanner McKee targets, for six receptions, last week against the Panthers.
That was second on the Eagles to Smith, who caught seven of 14 targets, and the lone passing touchdown. With Smith out, Goedert should slide into an even more featured role for McKee, particularly in play-action near the goal line with Barkley selling the run.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
Source: sports.yahoo.com — article syndicated from the publisher’s feed; all rights remain with the original publisher.