MLB’s lockout is coming. How it impacts Reds, Elly De La Cruz, fans
The Cincinnati Reds’ competitive task this winter was already tough enough after their 75-87, last-place face plant in the National League Central this year.
A labor lockout by owners looms with the 11:59 p.m. Dec. 1 expiration of the collective bargaining agreement, and that not only will immediately freeze all MLB business − including free agency a month into the process − but also threatens to delay spring training and maybe even the 2027 regular season.
If you don’t believe the owners and commissioner Rob Manfred are prepared for a lengthy battle over a long-sought salary cap, you weren’t listening when Manfred spoke to reporters during an all-small-market World Series that seemed to belie the owners’ parity argument.
Manfred actually used the Milwaukee Brewers–Tampa Bay Rays matchup as fuel for the argument (or, some suggest, the gaslighting).
“I think it shows that we leave a lot on the table in some of our smaller markets by not having them have an opportunity to compete on a regular basis," Manfred said in Milwaukee before Game 1. “The Brewers have been a well-run franchise forever. It’s been 40 years since we’re here. Once every 40 years is not enough.”
Bruce Meyer, the head of the players union, reiterated the union’s long-held position on the matter in an ESPN report during the Series: “The salary cap is the opposite of competition. …The results of these playoffs obviously further undermine their argument for why they think they want it. But, again, that’s not the reason they want it.”
Conversations with dozens of players over the past two seasons suggest the rank-and-file remains galvanized on an issue that has been considered a non-starter by players since Marvin Miller led the union during its formative decades more than a generation ago.
What does it all mean for the Reds and MLB fans, and what comes next?
Any chance a lockout will be avoided?
No. Not unless Lloyd Christmas is doing the math. It would take a stunning, unforeseeable reversal of intent by owners and their proxy, Manfred, for that not to happen.
When asked in July by The Enquirer whether owners would actually risk a shutdown of any length for a cap, given the long-term damage from the 1994-95 shutdown, Manfred launched into a 176-word set of talking points:
“I believe that in order for this game to reach its full potential we need to continue to address concerns that our fans have, particularly concerns that go to the core of what we’re about: That is competitive balance. We need to make sure that fans and markets at the beginning of the season have a realistic belief that their team has a chance to win. …”
When he finally finished in the same vein, without answering the question, during that media conference, he was then asked: “So that means ‘yes’?”
He ignored the followup.
Wait. Fans are clamoring for a salary cap?
Not exactly. Manfred’s talking points almost always are framed to make it appear that fans are asking for a cap.
What fans want is for their teams to win. Specifically, to have hope that their teams can win championships. The owners’ messaging suggests a salary cap is the magic pill for that, when, in fact, there is little empirical evidence to suggest that is the answer.
They point to the NFL and NBA as examples of leagues with salary caps that have parity, omitting the fact that the NFL, for instance, also has the most comprehensive broadcast revenue sharing system through it’s nationalized TV structure.
Isn’t the revenue disparity why the Reds have mostly struggled for 30 years?
Not exactly. Teams in smaller markets certainly have revenue-based disadvantages compared to, say, the record-spending Dodgers.
But the Brewers just won the World Series despite residing in the smallest television market in MLB. The Rays just played in their third World Series since 2008 despite typically spending far less than the Reds on big-league payroll ($32.6 million less this year). And don’t get us started on what Cleveland has done with less compared to the Reds the last three decades.
In fact, sources with knowledge of MLB’s internal revenue and profit comparisons say the Reds are among the most profitable teams in the majors (at least as a function of percentage of revenues).
And another source separate from those said the Reds make more money than at least seven other MLB teams.
So how big a problem is competitive disparity in MLB?
MLB has had more teams win championships than the NFL in recent decades, including 10 different World Series champions in the past 15 seasons – with three franchises winning for the first time in that span. Another nine teams played in the World Series over that 15-year stretch, for a total of nearly two-thirds of the league playing in the final round.
And this in a league that qualifies a smaller percentage of its teams for the postseason than the NFL, NBA or NHL.
For all the talk of the Dodgers’ dominance, they went 32 years without winning a championship before their run of three in the last seven years.
In some ways, the game has never had more parity.
Yeah, but wouldn’t a salary cap mean a better chance for the Reds?
No. And certainly not unless revenue-sharing were to increase dramatically.
A pers
Source: sports.yahoo.com — article syndicated from the publisher’s feed; all rights remain with the original publisher.