Bills vs Vikings prediction, key matchups in clash of division leaders
ORCHARD PARK – At least this time the Buffalo Bills had ample time to adjust their defensive game plan in the wake of a seismic shift in their opponent’s quarterback situation.
Thursday, Minnesota Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell announced that Kyler Murray would not play in Monday night’s showdown against the Bills in a battle of two 6-1, division-leading teams. The mobile Murray has a hamstring injury, so immobile backup Carson Wentz takes over.
But given how the Bills responded last Sunday when they spent nearly two weeks preparing to face Baltimore’s dynamic Lamar Jackson, only to see him leave after the very first play, head coach Joe Brady believes his defense will adapt without a problem.
“Defensively, I think they had to have the mindset of getting ready for both of them as well,” Brady said, indicating the Bills were well aware even early in the practice week that Murray might not play. “Carson Wentz has played games this year, he’s played really good football in the league for a long time, but obviously there’s always going to be a little bit of adjustment with different types of skill sets. We found out last week, you’re having to make adjustments in game on the second play, right, so nothing that Jim (Leonhard) and his staff is not used to.”
What’s interesting is that while the Ravens were a shell of themselves without Jackson, the Vikings may be better off with Wentz because Murray has not been effective in his first season with Minnesota.
Wentz replaced an injured Murray early in the season opener and helped lead a comeback win against the Packers, then started in a Week 2 victory over the Bears before Murray returned to action in Week 3. To be fair, Wentz wasn’t all that much better than Murray and regardless of who has been the QB, the Vikings’ offense has been pretty putrid as it ranks 27th in scoring (20.0 points per game), 29th in total yards (279.4) and 31st in passing yards (165.6).
Not even a game against the Lions’ awful defense could help the Vikings last week in their 19-15 loss, but now they’ll get a crack at another of the NFL’s weakest defenses, this time at home, and perhaps Wentz’s steadier hand will make a difference.
“He is the perfect guy in a moment where you can’t have Kyler out there at full strength to go in there," O’Connell said. "And we feel very strongly about when Carson’s in there, we’re going to get really effective quarterback play."
Here’s my preview of the game, followed by my prediction:
The QB Matchup: Josh Allen vs. Carson Wentz
It isn’t always a great idea to blitz Josh Allen, and this year’s numbers support that theory because he has been blitzed on 33.2% of his dropbacks per Pro Football Focus and has completed 66.7% of his passes at 8.6 yards per attempt while producing 30 first downs either passing or running.
But Vikings’ defensive coordinator Brian Flores lives and dies with the blitz, almost like no other coach we’ve ever seen. He has brought at least five rushers on 71% of Minnesota’s defensive snaps, a crazy number when the next-closest team, the Giants, come at a 40.3% rate.
Since his last full season as a starter in 2021 with the Colts, Wentz has played for the Commanders, Raiders, Chiefs and Vikings and has a 6-9 record as a starter including 3-3 with Minnesota. In his two appearances for the Vikings this year he has completed 23 of 39 passes for 276 yards with three TDs and no picks, far more efficient than Murray. This switch may not be a positive development for Buffalo.
Buffalo Bills who should impact the game
▶ WR D.J. Moore: The Vikings’ best CB, Isaiah Rodgers, doesn’t usually travel with one WR, but he does split his time between left and right almost 50-50 depending on the call. Moore, who may be battling a knee injury in addition to his sore shoulder, will see plenty of Rodgers and it could be a tough day. Per Sumer Sports, Rodgers’ 0.26 yards per coverage snap is No. 1 among 77 CBs with at least 250 snaps. He has given up just 10 catches on 20 targets for a mere 56 yards.
▶ RB James Cook: I could put Cook in this space every week because he’s that important to the Bills, but he is absolutely critical in this game because the Bills must attack Minnesota on the ground in order to minimize the impact of all the blitzing. And that success has to come on early downs because you know Ty Johnson will be in the game on third down, or even obvious second-down passing situations, because he’s the better pass protector. Per Sumer, on early downs the Vikings rank 23rd allowing 4.46 yards per rush, so the Bills need to exploit that in order to get into favorable third-down situations.
▶ LB Bradley Chubb: Wentz is going to stay in the pocket as much as he can and this should be an opportunity for Chubb to get something going because he has been a bit underwhelming thus far. His 23 QB pressures are two fewer than DT Deone Walker, and Sumer charts him with just 12 impact plays, defined as plays that caused a failure for the offense. By comparison, Greg Rousseau has 27.
▶ S Cole Bishop: Freed from the now-released C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Bishop looked more like the player we saw last season against the Ravens. He just seems more comfortable playing with Damar Hamlin and it unlocks his instincts and athleticism. Bishop needs to be aware of TE T.J. Hockenson, who is Minnesota’s second-best passing game weapon, and defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard may also want to dial up a few Bishop blitzes against Wentz.
Minnesota Vikings who should impact the game
▶ WR Justin Jefferson: Before stunningly blanking Baltimore’s Zay Flowers last week, the Bills had faced three other elite WRs this season: Nico Collins of the Texans, Amon-Ra St. Brown of the Lions, and Puka Nacua of the Rams. They combined to catch 33 passes for 355 yards and four TDs. Now they get Jefferson, who has been a shell of himself this year with just 28 catches for 335 yards and four TDs, but this might be exactly the defensive backfield he can take advantage of. Jefferson’s best game of the year came in Week 1 when Wentz was the QB almost the entire way. The Bills should seriously consider traveling Christian Benford with Jefferson.
▶ RT Brian O’Neill: He has been one of the best pass-blocking tackles in the league this season, fifth-best in fact per Pro Football Focus grading. He’ll have a key role in containing Rousseau who does almost all of his pass rushing from that side. O’Neill has allowed just six QB pressures all season, so Rousseau will have his hands full. Per Sumer, Rousseau’s 17% pressure win rate is fourth-best among all OLB/edge rushers.
▶ OLB Dallas Turner: He has been one of the league’s best pass rushe
Source: sports.yahoo.com — article syndicated from the publisher’s feed; all rights remain with the original publisher.