Why Is Nikola Jokic Suddenly Struggling So Much To Score Early In The Season?
Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
Something’s been a little off with Nikola Jokic lately, and I don’t think we can just ignore it anymore. The Denver Nuggets superstar is still putting up 23.4 points, 9.7 rebounds, and 9.3 assists per game to start the 2026-27 season, which sounds amazing for pretty much anybody else, but I mean, we’re talking about a guy who was averaging almost 30 PPG not too long ago.
And it’s not just the scoring. Jokic shot 56.9% from the field and 38.0% from three last season, but through seven games, those numbers have dropped to 50.4% and a pretty ugly 21.9% from deep. For someone who’s been one of the most efficient offensive players we’ve ever seen, that’s quite a drop, especially when he’s actually taking more shots.
The Nuggets aren’t doing much better either, sitting at 4-3 and ninth in the Western Conference, with their offense dropping from first in the NBA last season to 11th right now, not exactly what we expected from a team trying to get back into the championship conversation.
Now, I’m not saying Jokic is suddenly washed or anything crazy like that (he literally just dropped a 32-point triple-double against the Toronto Raptors), but I do think there’s something worth discussing here, and it goes beyond his three-point shooting.
His left knee injury from last season, the way he’s moving around the basket, his shot selection, and even his workload could all be connected, and looking at the numbers, I’m starting to think his struggles didn’t actually begin this season.
Jokic Is Taking More Shots, But Making A Lot Less
What makes this whole situation a concerning issue is that he’s actually averaging 18.1 field-goal attempts per game compared to 17.4 last year, so we can’t blame his scoring drop on some sort of team scheme or him deciding to pass every time he touches the ball.
Jokic is taking more shots, he’s just missing a lot more of them, and when we’re talking about someone who shot at least 56.6% from the field in each of the previous six seasons, seeing him down at 50.4% is a pretty noticeable difference.
His true shooting percentage is even more concerning, going from an insane 67.0% last season to just 57.9% right now. That’s over nine percentage points, and although 57.9% isn’t terrible by normal NBA standards, Jokic has never been a normal offensive player.
Remember, this is someone who averaged 29.6 PPG on 57.6% shooting in 2024-25, and during the Nuggets’ championship season, he put up 24.5 points while making an absurd 63.2% of his shots. He basically spent years making difficult shots look easy.
Now? Not so much. The season opener against OKC was probably the clearest example, with Jokic finishing with just 13 points on 5-of-19 shooting, including 1-of-7 from three, as the Nuggets lost 96-84.
He bounced back with 35 against the Pelicans, sure, but then came 19 against Golden State, 21 against the Pelicans again, and 18 against the Suns. Nothing too horrible, but definitely not what we’re used to seeing from him, and I honestly think the bigger issue isn’t the scoring average itself, but how he’s missing some of those shots.
Jokic doesn’t seem to have that same little touch around the basket, especially when bigger centers are guarding him, and that’s where I want to bring up something I’ve been thinking about.
His Knee Injury Might Be A Bigger Problem
It’s fair to say that Jokic hasn’t looked quite the same since injuring his left knee against Miami last December, and the numbers before and after that injury might prove this theory right.
Before getting hurt, Jokic was shooting an absolutely ridiculous 60.5% from the field and 43.5% from three, but after returning, those percentages dropped to 53.3% and 31.9% across his final 33 games of the season. And things got even worse during the playoffs, when he averaged 25.8 PPG while shooting 44.6% from the field and 19.4% from three across six games.
So now we’re watching him struggle again to begin this season, and I wonder if that knee injury took away some of the very little explosiveness he had (because Jokic was never a guy who jumped over defenders), but he always had just enough lift to get his shots off.
Some of his hooks look short, his floaters aren’t dropping as easily, and when he’s going against bigger centers, he seems to have a harder time bullying them into the rim. He’s still getting to his spots, but the finishing doesn’t look as automatic as it used to.
There’s actually a pretty interesting breakdown from Nuggets fan and analyst Max Moacanin, who studied Jokic’s shooting before and after the injury, and the numbers back up at least part of what we’re seeing.
According to that analysis, Jokic went from shooting 75.1% in the restricted area before the injury to 71.8% afterward, while his efficiency from the paint outside the restricted area dropped from 62.1% to 53.8%.
His above-the-break three-point percentage also dropped from 42.6% to 30.2%, another change that could be related to his legs, especially when you consider how important balance is for a player who shoots with that kind of unusual form.
His Three-Point Shooting Has Been Awful
Okay, let’s talk about the most obvious problem, because Jokic has made just 7 of his first 32 three-point attempts this season, shooting 21.9% from deep after making 38.0% last year and 41.7% in 2024-25.
For a player who turned himself into one of the most lethal stretch weapons in basketball, that’s a brutal slump. And he hasn’t cut back on the attempts, either, still launching 4.6 per game. The volume is identical, but the bucket quality hasn’t been there.
To put it in perspective: if he were hitting his usual 38.0% on those 32 attempts, he’d have five more made 3s right now, adding 15 points to his season total. That alone would bump his scoring average up closer to 26.0 PPG, and the whole narrative around his start would look completely different.
Beyond raw points, missing from deep hurts Denver’s spacing. When defenders don’t have to respect Jokic at the arc, center help can sag into the paint, which clutters driving lanes for Denver’s cutting game.
His game logs show the rhythm: 1-of-7 against OKC, 1-of-6 against Golden State, 2-of-7 against Portland. While 21.9% is bound to trend upward, expecting an immediate leap back to 40% might be overly optimistic given the lower percentages he’s posted dating back to last season.
He’s Playing Way Too Far From The Basket
My biggest tactical question right now is why Jokic is spending so much time floating away from the low post. According to tracking data cited by ESPN’s Ben Golliver, just 16.0% of Jokic’s shot attempts have come directly at the rim this season, a career low. Meanwhile, his average shot distance has drifted out to 12.0 feet, tying his career high.
I really don’t love that trend, I mean, Jokic built an MVP legacy by destroying defenders out of the mid-post, using footwork, fakes, and counters to collapse defenses. Those short f
Source: sports.yahoo.com — article syndicated from the publisher’s feed; all rights remain with the original publisher.